The impact of Russia’s foreign trade on its Actual Open Emissions of CO2

Abstract

This article analyses the impact of Russia's trade with 78 selected countries on Russia’s Actual-Open CO₂ Emissions (EAO) from 2000 to 2020, especially concerning the European Union’s CO₂ emission reduction policies active during that period. The countries selected for analysis were identified based on trade significance, emissions data availability, and consistency with BP statistical reports. The methodological approach relies on the Actual-Open CO₂ Emissions (EAO) model, which reveals a significant influence of Russia's foreign trade on its CO₂ emissions. Results indicate that Russia’s international trade substantially affected its emissions, primarily because Russia was a major CO₂ emitter and exported a considerable portion of its GDP. While the results also indicate emission shifts affecting Russia’s trade partners, the analysis does not provide full EAO calculations for EU countries or others—only trade-attributed impacts are assessed. Differences indicate the presence of emission transfers via trade, complicating efforts to achieve emission reduction targets within the EU, which aimed for a 20% reduction by 2020. The findings of this study are particularly relevant in the context of the EU’s current "Fit for 55" policy, which targets a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, underscoring the need to account for emission transfers in trade policy considerations.