Keywords
disrupted supply chains
supply chain resilience
How to Cite
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the sustainability of the food market and contributed significantly to the increase in agricultural prices. The goal of this article is to present the results of a European Delphi study on enabling factors and barriers to developing robustness within food distribution networks. The paper also aims to identify ways to ensure food security and build resilience in supply chains for European Union (EU) citizens, as well as strategies to protect the agricultural sector. The Delphi theses, the expected timing of their implementation and their impact on selected stages of supply chains were assessed. The paper employs a literature review, the Delphi method and STEEPED analysis to identify factors for increasing the robustness of European food distribution networks. The research findings highlighted crucial factors in enhancing food supply chain resilience, including financial aid to farmers, the use of advanced technologies (like AI, remote sensing, GIS, VR, or drones), and the encouragement of conscious consumption practices. The study revealed that severe weather, inadequate financial support for farmers and insufficient favourable legislation at the national level are the main barriers to achieving resilience in food supply chains. The main recommendations for building food resilience include encouraging localised food supply chains and, advocating for eco-friendly, sustainable production approaches and small-scale agriculture and reducing unnecessary food losses. The originality of the study is reflected in the presentation of the opinions of international experts on developing robustness within food distribution networks in view of the disruption caused by COVID-19 and the geopolitical situation.
References
Abdülkerimov, B. (2022). Ukraine’s President Says Millions of Tons of Grain Trapped in Country. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukrainewar/ukraine-s-president-says-millions-of-tons-of-grain-trapped-in-country/2607299
Abe, M., & Ye, L. (2013). Building Resilient Supply Chains against Natural Disasters: The Cases of Japan and Thailand. Global Business Review, 14(4), 567-586. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150913501606
Allen, T., Prosperi, P., Cogill, B. A., Padilla, M., & Peri, J. (2019). Delphi Approach to Develop Sustainable Food System Metrics. Social Indicators Research, 141, 1307-1339. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1865-8
Althaf, S., & Babbitt, C. W. (2021). Disruption risks to material supply chains in the electronics sector. Resources. Conservation and Recycling, 167, 105248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105248
AMIS. (2023). Agricultural Market Information System – an inter-agency platform to enhance food market transparency and policy response for food security. https://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-about/en/
Bánáti, D. (2011). Consumer response to food scandals and scares. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 22(2-3), 56-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2010.12.007
Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2022). Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Security: Towards More Sustainable and Resilient Food Systems? Foods, 11(15), 2301. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11152301
Blanchard, E. J., Pown, Ch. P., & Johnson, R. C. (2016). Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, 21883. https://doi.org/10.3386/w21883
Cardoso, B., Cunha, L., Leiras, A., Gonçalves, P., Yoshizaki, H., de Brito Junior, I., & Pedroso, F. (2021). Causal Impacts of Epidemics and Pandemics on Food Supply Chains: A Systematic Review. Sustainability, 13(17), 9799. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179799
Cheung, K.-F., Bell, M. G. H., & Bhattacharjya, J. (2021). Cybersecurity in logistics and supply chain management: An overview and future research directions. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 146, 102217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2020.102217
Couper, M. P. (2000). Web surveys: A review of issues and approaches. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64(4), 464-494. https://doi.org/10.1086/318641
Cramon-Taubadel, S. (2022). Ukraine’s Agricultural Exports: Don’t Forget the Land Route! https://agrardebatten.de/agrarzukunft/ukraines-agricultural-exports-dont-forget-the-land-route
Csikós, N., & Tóth, G. (2023). Concepts of agricultural marginal lands and their utilisation: A review. Agricultural Systems, 204, 103560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103560
de Loe, R. C., Mylnychuk, N., Murray, D., & Plummer, R. (2016). Advancing the State of Policy Delphi Practice: A Systematic Review Evaluating Methodological Evolution, Innovation, and Opportunities. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 104, 78-88. https://doi.org.10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.009
Deconinck, K., Avery, E., & Jackson L. A. (2020). Food Supply Chains and Covid‐19: Impacts and Policy Lessons. EuroChoices, 19(3):34–9. doi: 10.1111/1746-692X.12297.
Din, A. U., Han, H., Ariza-Montes, A., Vega-Muñoz, A., Raposo, A., & Mohapatra, S. (2022). The impact of Covid-19 on the food supply chain and the role of e-commerce for food purchasing. Sustainability, 14(5), 3074. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14053074
Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development. (2023). Access to finance remains insufficient for farmers and agri-food SMEs. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/news/access-finance-remains-insufficient-farmers-and-agri-food-smes-2023-10-12_en
Duchenne-Moutien, R. A., & Neetoo, H. (2021). Climate change and emerging food safety issues: a review. Journal of Food Protection, 84(11), 1884-1897. https://doi.org/10.4315/JFP-21-141
Ducros, E. (2022). World food crisis: between withdrawal and responsibility, Europe must choose. Robert Schumann Foundation: European Issues, 627, 1-7. https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/doc/questions-d-europe/qe-627-en.pdf
Ejdys, J., Czerewacz-Filipowicz, K., Halicka, K., Kononiuk, A., Magruk, A., Siderska, J., & Szpilko, D. (2023a). A preparedness plan for Europe: Addressing food, energy and technological security. https://doi.org/10.2861/560317
Ejdys, J., Czerewacz-Filipowicz, K., Halicka, K., Kononiuk, A., Magruk, A., Siderska, J., & Szpilko, D. (2023b). A preparedness plan for Europe: Addressing food, energy and technological security. Annex 1. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/stoa/en/document/EPRS_STU(2023)740232
European Commission. (2023). Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Summary of CAP Strategic Plans for 2023-2027: joint effort and collective ambition, Pub. L. No. 52023DC0707. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52023DC0707
FAO. (2022). The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the war in Ukraine. https://www.fao.org/3/cb9013en/cb9013en.pdf
Flanagan, T., Ashmore, R., Banks, D., & MacInnes, D. (2016). The delphi method: Methodological issues arising from a study examining factors influencing the publication or non-publication of mental health nursing research. Mental Health Review Journal, 21(2), 85-94. https://doi.org/10.1108/MHRJ-07-2015-0020
Gallardo, R. K., & Sauer, J. (2018). Adoption of Labour-Saving Technology in Agriculture. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 10(1), 185-206.
Gebresenbet, G. (2021). Digitalization and Future Agro-Food Supply Chain Management: A Literature-Based Implications. Sustainability, 13(21), 12181. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132112181
Gnatzy, T., Warth, J., Gracht, H., & Darkow, I. L. (2011). Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach – A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1681-1694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.006
Grady, J. S., Her, M., Moreno, G., Perez, C., & Yelinek, J. (2019). Emotions in storybooks: A comparison of storybooks that represent ethnic and racial groups in the United States. Psychology of Popular Media Culture, 8(3), 207-217. https://doi.org/10.1037/ppm0000185
Hossain, A., Krupnik, T., Timsina, J., Mahboob, M.G., Chaki, A. K., Farooq, M., Bhatt, R., Fahad, S., & M. Hasanuzzaman (2020). Agricultural Land Degradation: Processes and Problems Undermining Future Food Security. In: Fahad, S., et al. Environment, Climate, Plant and Vegetation Growth. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49732-3_2
Karoliina, R., Jyrki, A., Kalle, A., & Rikkonen, P. (2023). The elements of resilience in the food system and means to enhance the stability of the food supply. Environment Systems and Decisions, 43, 143-160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-022-09889-5
Kausar Azam, M., Hasan, S. M., & Qureshi, S. M. (2023). Exploring the critical success factors of a resilient supply chain. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 15(1), 41-56. https://doi.org/10.2478/emj-2023-0004
Khan, N., Ray, R. L., Sargani, G. R., Ihtisham, M., Khayyam, M., & Ismail, S. (2021). Current Progress and Future Prospects of Agriculture Technology: Gateway to Sustainable Agriculture. Sustainability, 13(9), 4883. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13094883
Kononiuk, A. (2010). The application of STEEPVL analysis in the project: Technology foresight: ‘NT FOR Podlaskie 2020’. Regional strategy of nanotechnology development. Economy and Management, 4, 105-115. https://www.empas.pb.edu.pl/media/5a657780-4035-4110-bddd-a2bc6eb22db0/2KN2rA/Global%20Resources/2010/4/10_kononiuk.pdf (in Polish).
Kononiuk, A., & Nazarko, J. (2014). Scenariusze w antycypowaniu i kształtowaniu przyszłości. Warszawa: Wolters Kluwer. (in Polish).
Kononiuk, A., Siderska, J., Gudanowska, A. E., & Dębkowska, K. (2021). The problem of labour resources as a development barrier to the Polish economy – the application of the Delphi method. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 18, 139-151.
Kowalewska, A., & Głuszyński, J. (2009). Application of the Delphi Method in the National Foresight Program „Poland 2020”. Warsaw: Pentor Research International. (in Polish).
Kresnanto, N. C., Putri, W. H., Lantarsih, R., & Harjiyatni, F. R. (2021). Challenges in transportation policy: speeding up a sustainable agri-food supply chain. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 662(1), 012006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/662/1/012006
Lambin, E. F., Gibbs, H. K., Heilmayr, R., Carlson, K. M., Fleck, L. C., Garrett, R. D., le Polain de Waroux, Y., McDermott, C. L., McLaughlin, D., Newton, P., Nolte, Ch., Pacheco, P., Rausch, L. L., Streck, Ch., Thorlakson, T., & Walker, N. F. (2018). The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation. Nature Climate Change, 8, 109-116. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0061-1
Lin, F., Li, X., Jia, N., Feng, F., Huang, H., Huang, J., Fan, S., Ciais, P., & Song, X.-P. (2023). The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security. Global Food Security, 36, 100661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100661
Maggiore, A., Afonso, A., Barrucci, F., & Sanctis, G. D. (2020). Climate change as a driver of emerging risks for food and feed safety, plant, animal health and nutritional quality. EFSA Supporting Publications, 17(6), 1881E. https://doi.org/10.2903/sp.efsa.2020.EN-1881
Mattas, K., Tsakiridou, E., Karelakis, C., Lazaridou, D., Gorton, M., Filipović, J., Hubbard, C., Saidi, M., Strojkovic, D., Tocco, B., Tregear, A., & Veneziani, M. (2022). Strengthening the sustainability of European food chains through quality and procurement policies. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 120, 248-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2021.11.021
Mirata, V., Hirt, F., Bergamin, P., & van der Westhuizen, C. (2020). Challenges and contexts in establishing adaptive learning in higher education: Findings from a delphi study. International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education, 17(1), 32. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41239-020-00209-y
Moosavi, J., Fathollahi-Fard, A. M., & Dulebenets, M. A. (2022). Supply chain disruption during the Covid-19 pandemic: Recognizing potential disruption management strategies. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 75, 102983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102983
Nazarko, J., Ejdys, J., Halicka, K., Nazarko, Ł., Kononiuk, A., & Olszewska, A. (2017). Factor Analysis as a Tool Supporting STEEPVL Approach to the Identification of Driving Forces of Technological Innovation. Procedia Engineering, 182, 491-496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.03.142
Nazarko, J., Radziszewski, P., Dębkowska, K., Ejdys, J., Gudanowska, A., Halicka, K., Kilon, J., Kononiuk, A., Kowalski, K. J., Król, J. B., Nazarko, Ł., Sarnowski, M., & Vilutienė, T. (2015). Foresight study of road pavement technologies. Procedia Engineering, 122, 129-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.10.016
Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: An example, design considerations and applications. Information & Management, 42(1), 15-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.im.2003.11.002
Parast, M. M., & Shekarian, M. (2019). The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Organizational Performance: A Literature Review. In G. Zsidisin & M. Henke (Eds.), Revisiting Supply Chain Risk (pp. 367-389). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03813-7_21
Rimhanen, K., Aakkula, J., Aro, K., & Rikkonen, P. (2023). The elements of resilience in the food system and means to enhance the stability of the food supply. Environmental Systems and Decisions, 43, 143-160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-022-09889-5
Serpil, A., & Mehmet, S. A. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 on the food supply chain. Food Quality and Safety, 4(4), 167-180. https://doi.org/10.1093/fqsafe/fyaa024
Shahini, E., Skuraj, E., Sallaku, F., & Shahini, S. (2022). The Supply Shock in Organic Fertilizers for Agriculture Caused by the Effect of Russia-Ukraine War. Scientific Horizons, 25(2), 97-103. https://doi.org/10.48077/scihor.25(2).2022.97-103
Shen, B., & Li, Q. (2016). Market disruptions in supply chains: a review of operational models. International Transactions in Operational Research, 24(4), 697-711. https://doi.org/10.1111/itor.12333
Skulmoski, G. J., Hartman, F. T., & Krahn, J. (2007). The Delphi method for graduate research. Journal of Information Technology Education: Research, 6(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.28945/199
Strambu-Dima, A. (2022). Food-Related Consumer Behavior Endorsing European Food Chain Sustainability – A Marketing Study on the Romanian Consumer. Sustainability, 14(15), 9045. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159045
Stürck, J., Levers, C., van der Zanden, E. H., Schulp, C. J. E., Verkerk, P. J., Kuemmerle, T., Helming, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Tabeau, A., Popp, A., Schrammeijer, E., & Verburg, P. (2018). Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe. Regional Environmental Change, 18, 733-749. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0876-0
Tiwari, P., Sadeghi, J. K., & Eseonu, C. (2020). A sustainable lean production framework with a case implementation: Practice-based view theory. Journal of Cleaner Production, 277, 123078. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123078
Trucmel, I. M., & Vintila, A. (2023). An Assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict on the European Cereal Exports Using Network Theory. Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, 12(1), 46-62. https://doi.org/10.2478/jses-2023-0003
van Woensel, L. (2020). Scientific Foresight: Considering the Future of Science and Technology. In L. van Woensel (Ed.), A Bias Radar for Responsible Policy-Making (pp. 39-68). Cham: Palgrave.
Wronka, A. (2023). Analysis of conditions for supporting employee safety during the COVID-19 pandemic in manufacturing companies in Poland. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 15(2), 83-95. https://doi.org/10.2478/emj-2023-0014
Zickafoose, A., Lu, P., & Baker, M. (2022). Forecasting Food Innovations with a Delphi Study. Foods, 11(22), 3723. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11223723
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2024 Economics and Environment