Keywords
socio-economic indicators
demographic indicators
fertility
migration
How to Cite
Abstract
For most regions of Central and Eastern Europe there has been a noticeable decline in population in recent years. The purpose of this article is to analyse the level of economic and social indicators as well as changes in population size between 2008 and 2019 in the regions of Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, the article attempts to answer the question of how the change in selected economic and social indicators impacts the change in population size. The answer to the above question will be provided with the use of the ratio analysis and thesoft model. The research results show that the two causes of changes in population size (natural causes and migrations) are significantly affected by a group of social indicators, even though—with regard to migration—the significance of economic indicators is increasing and the difference between the former and the latter is not substantial. Consequently, in response to the depopulation process, more attention should be paid to the social dimension of development. In other words, creating proper conditions for personal and professional activity may be more important than using financial instruments.
References
Becker, G. S. (1960). An Economic Analysis of Fertility. In G.B. Roberts (Ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries (pp. 209-240). Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Bernard, A., & Kalemba, S. (2022). Internal migration and the de-standardization of the life course: A sequence analysis of reasons for migrating. Demographic Research, 46, 337-354. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2022.46.12
Bijak, J. (2006). Forecasting international migration: Selected theories, models, and methods. http://www.cefmr.pan.pl/docs/cefmr_wp_2006-04.pdf
Bocquier, P., & Costa, R. (2015). Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden. Demographic Research, 33, 1297-1332. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.48
Caldwell, J. C. (1982). A Theory of Fertility Decline. New York: Academic Press.
Coale, A.J. (1973). The demographic transition reconsidered. In: Proceedings of the International Population Conference. Liège: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 53-72.
Coleman, D. (2006). Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition. Population and Development Review, 32(3), 401-446. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00131.x
Daugirdas, V., & Pociute-Sereikiene, G. (2018). Depopulation tendencies and territorial development in Lithuania. Regional Statistics, 8(2), 46-68. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331114536_Depopulation_tendencies_and_territorial_development_in_Lithuania
Davis, K. (1963). The theory of change and response in modern demographic history. Population Index, 29(4), 345-366. https://doi.org/10.2307/2732014
de Haas, H. (2010). The internal dynamics of migration processes: a theoretical inquiry. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 36(10), 1587-1617. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2010.489361
Doeringer, P. B., & Piore, M. J. (1971). Internal Labor Markets and Manpower Analysis. Lexington, MA: Heath.
Engelhardt, H. (2011). On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time: A pooled time-series analysis on the impact of social indicators. Bamberg: Universität Bamberg. https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/handle/document/41834/ssoar-2011-engelhardt-On_the_changing_correlation_between.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y&lnkname=ssoar-2011-engelhardt-On_the_changing_correlation_between.pdf
Eurostat. (2023). Database by themes. General and regional statistics. Regional statistics by NUTS classification. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database
Faist, T. (2000). A Review of Dominant Theories of International Migration. In T. Faist (Ed.), The Volume and Dynamics of International Migration and Transnational Social Spaces (pp. 30-59). Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198293910.003.0002
Fei, J. C. H., & Ranis, G. (1961). A Theory of Economic Development. The American Economic Review, 51(4), 533-565. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1812785
Frejka, T. (2016). The demographic transition revisited: a cohort perspective. https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-012.pdf
Górna, A., & Kaczmarczyk, P. (2003). Uwarunkowania i mechanizmy migracji zarobkowych w świetle wybranych koncepcji teoretycznych. CMR Working Papers. https://www.migracje.uw.edu.pl/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/049-1.pdf (in Polish).
Hagen-Zanker, J. (2008). Why do people migrate? A review of the theoretical literature. Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance Working Paper No. 2008/WP002. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1105657
Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis. The American Economic Review, 60(1), 126-142. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1807860
Hicks, J. R. (1932). The theory of wages. London: Macmillan.
Hirschman, Ch. (1994). Why fertility changes. Annual Review of Sociology, 20, 203-233. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2083365
Hondroyiannis, G. (2010). Fertility determinants and economic uncertainty: An assessment using European panel data. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 31(1), 33-50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-009-9178-3
Jemna, D. V., & David, M. (2018). Post-transitional regional fertility in Romania. Demographic Research, 38, 1733-1776. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.57
Jones, L. E., & Tertilt, M. (2008). An Economic History of Fertility in the U.S.: 1826-1960. NBER Working Paper Series. https://www.nber.org/papers/w12796.pdf
Jones, L. E., Schoonbroodt, A., & Tertilt, M. (2008). Fertility Theories Can They Explain the Negative Fertility- Income Relationship? NBER Working Paper Series. https://www.nber.org/papers/w14266
Judah, T. (2021). Southeast Europe's Looming Demographic Crisis. https://www.helvetas.org/en/eastern-europe/about-us/follow-us/helvetas-mosaic/article/March2021/demographic-decline-southeast-europe
Kovalenko-Marchenkova, Y. (2022). Management of the National Economy as an Element of the Socio-economic Space of the Country. Economics, Ecology, Socium, 6(3), 30-37. https://doi.org/10.31520/2616-7107/2022.6.3-4
Koyama, Y. (2018). Migration from Bulgaria and Its Depopulation. Proceedings of the 4th International Conferenceon European Integration, Ostrava, 829- 836.
Kreyenfeld, M. (2004). Fertility Decisions in the FRG and GDR: An Analysis with Data from the German Fertility and Family Survey. Demographic Research, Special Collection, 3, 275-318. https://doi.org./10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.11
Landry, A. (1934). La Révolution Démographique: études et essais sur les problèmes de la population. Paris: Sirey.
Lee, E. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47-57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Lee, Y. J., Sugiura, H., & Gečienė, I. (2017). Stay or Relocate: The Roles of Networks After the Great East Japan Earthquake. In E.C. Jones & A.J. Faas (Eds.), Social Network Analysis of Disaster Response, Recovery, and Adaptation (pp. 223-238). Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-805196-2.00015-7
Leibenstein, H. (1975). The Economic Theory of Fertility Decline. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 89(1), 1-31. https://doi.org/10.2307/1881706
Lesthaeghe, R. (1995). The second demographic transition in western countries: An interpretation. In K.O. Mason & A.M. Jensen (Eds.), Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries (pp. 17-62). Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Lundquist, J. H., Anderton, D. L., & Yaukey, D. (2015). Demography. The Study of Human Population, Fourth Edition. Long Grove, Illinois: Waveland Press.
Mason, K. O. (1997). Explaining Fertility Transitions. Demography, 34(4), 443-454. https://doi.org/10.2307/3038299
Massey, D. (1999). Why Does Immigration Occur? A Theoretical Synthesis. The handbook of international migration: the American experience. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population-The Long View. In T.W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the World (pp. 36-57). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Nowak, D., Dolinskyi, L., & Filipishyna, K. (2021). Digital Challenges in the Economy and Their Impact on Regional Development. Economics, Ecology, Socium, 5(4), 39-47. https://doi.org/10.31520/2616-7107/2021.5.4-5
Okólski, M., & Fihel, A. (2012). Demografia. Współczesne zjawiska i teorie. Warsaw: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar. (in Polish).
Otovescu, C., & Otovescu, A. (2019). The Depopulation of Romania–Is It an Irreversible Process? Revista de Cercetare si Interventie Sociala, 65, 370-388. http://dx.doi.org/10.33788/rcis.65.23
Parysek, J. (2018). Rozwój społeczno – gospodarczy oraz czynniki i uwarunkowania rozwoju. Studia KPZK PAN, CLXXXIII, 37-56. https://journals.pan.pl/Content/107785/PDF/Studia%20KPZK%20183_Parysek.pdf (in Polish).
Perło, D. (2014). Modelowanie zrównoważonego rozwoju regionów. Białystok: Wydawnictwo Uniwersyteckie Trans Humana. (in Polish).
Piore, M. J. (1979). Frontmatter. In M.J. Piore (Ed.), Birds of Passage: Migrant Labor and Industrial Societies (pp. I-VI). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511572210
Poston, D. L., & Bouvier, L. F. (2010). Population and society: an introduction to demography. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rogowski, J. (1990). Modele miękkie: teoria i zastosowanie w badaniach ekonomicznych. Białystok: Dział Wydawnictw Filli UW. (in Polish).
Schultz, T. W. (1973). The Value of Children: An Economic Perspective. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), S2-13. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:81:y:1973:i:2:p:s2-13
Thompson, W. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology, 34(6), 959-975. https://doi.org/10.1086/214874
Todaro, M. P. (1976). Migration and economic development: a review of theory, evidence, methodology and research priorities. Occasional Paper 18. Nairobi: University of Nairobi. http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/2017
Truskolaski, T., & Bugowski, Ł. K. (2022). The Process of Depopulation in Central and Eastern Europe – Determinants and Causes of Population Change between 2008 and 2019. European Research Studies Journal, XXV(3), 3-21. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/2990
Wickramasinghe, A. A. I. N., & Wimalaratana, W. (2016). International Migration and Migration Theories. Social Affairs, 1(5), 13-32. https://doaj.org/article/90df97f1572447a7b64dccff72c43429
Wiśniewski, R., Mazur, M., Śleszyński, P., & Szejgiec-Kolenda, B. (2020). Impact of demographic changes in Poland on local development. Warsaw: IGiPZ PAN. (in Polish).
Wolpert, J. (1965). Behavioral Aspects of the Decision to Migrate. Papers of the Regional Science Association 15, 159-169. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01947871
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2024 Economics and Environment